Asheville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

211
FXUS62 KGSP 310220
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
920 PM EST Mon Dec 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure moves off the East Coast tonight as a cold front
approaches from the west then crosses our region Tuesday
bringing some rain mainly to the mountains and I-40 corridor.
Cool and dry weather prevails through late week then another
stronger cold front passes Friday. Temperatures will be several
degrees below normal over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 920 PM EST Monday: Clear skies for now. Other than a few minor
adjustments, no major changes for this update. Forecast appears to
be on track.

The low to mid level flow atop the region will back and increase
tonight ahead of a quickly approaching plains/Ohio Valley cyclone.
Within the developing WAA flow, low cloudiness should blossom and as
deeper moisture nears, a few showers may be seen across the NC
mountains.  The jury is still out with respect to the magnitude and
cvrg of late night fog, as despite the moistening blyr, southerly
sfc winds may keep many places mixed, we`ll see.  Deeper moisture
and forcing brushes by the western cwfa through early afternoon
Tuesday, expanding light shower chances into the foothills and I-40
corridor.  Mixing becomes fairly deep Tuesday afternoon within the
veering and increasing downsloping llvl flow, stout westerly wind
gusts are likely to develop in conjunction with the clearing trends,
especially along and east of the Blue Ridge. With Piedmont maximums
exceeding 60 again on Tuesday, it will likely be the last 60+ deg  F
day we see for some time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

1) Brief snow showers along the TN/NC border Tuesday night with 2-3"
possible.

2) Gusty winds Tuesday night across the mountains (30-40 mph) with
higher gusts (50+ mph) possible at the highest peaks.

3) Drier weather and cooler temperatures for the period.

As of 210 PM Monday: Continuing Tuesday night, the closed low that
came through previously, dissipates to the north and leaves behind a
swath of tight gradient W/NW winds. Guidance has stronger winds (30-
40 mph) across the mountains, especially at the higher elevations. A
Wind Advisory may be needed in the next forecast issuance.
Additionally, surface moisture lingers over the mountains Tuesday
night and with temperatures below freezing, a burst of NW flow snow
is possible. Currently, keeping PoPs along the NC/TN border between
30-40% for snow showers. The higher amounts appear to be in the
Smoky Mountains at the TN/NC border with guidance suggesting
isolated 2-3 inches possible. This will also be highly dependent on
how much moisture lingers. It looks as though by Wednesday morning,
the snow showers should taper off as surface high pressure once
again builds in and shunts precipitation chances. A gradual cooling
trend is expected through the remainder of this period and into the
next.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Messages

1) A mostly drier pattern for the CWA through at least Sunday.

2) Temperatures continue to decrease throughout the period as a more
wintry pattern change ensues toward the end of the weekend.

As of 215 PM Monday: Picking up on Thursday night, quiet weather
ensues for at least the beginning of the extended period. Long term
guidance tries to initiate a weak trough and bring an even weaker
baroclinic zone quickly through the CWA Friday. This appears to be
the start of a pattern change with colder and drier air starting its
initial descent into the central/eastern CONUS. Gusty winds again
for the mountains with this tight gradient is possible as well, but
short lived. A slight chance for a brief burst of snow along the
TN/NC mountains as well, but things change. By Saturday, an
amplifying ridge out west propagates eastward over the weekend.
Toward the end of the weekend and forecast period, the long term
guidance develops an area of low pressure over the central CONUS,
which could an area to watch for a potential next system. However,
this is more than 7 days out so things will change. The bigger
concern for this pattern shift is the potential for cold
temperatures. Signals for an arctic blast are increasing for the
area by the end of the forecast period and beyond. What that will
look like as far as temperatures and any winter precipitation is yet
to be determined, but will continue to monitor over the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Starting the period off with VFR conditions
across all terminals. Overnight, some moisture returns to the areas
east of the mountains, causing IFR vsby/cig restrictions. Low level
stratus and areas of BR are expected to form between 09z-12z at
KGSP, KAND, KHKY and KGMU. Confidence is lower for KCLT at this time
but there is a chance for a brief SCT008 during the early afternoon
hours. Vsby/cigs should start to improve to low-end VFR for some
terminals by the afternoon. A slight chance for showers across the
mountain sites so a PROB30 for a brief period of -SHRA at KAVL and
KHKY. Additionally, strong winds are the primary concern for this
TAF period. Gusty winds across all terminals, with higher gusts in
the mountains expected. SW/W winds with gusts of 20-30kts likely.
There is also a possibility of LLWS at KAND and KAVL in the early
morning hours.


Outlook: Drier conditions return Wednesday through the Friday.
Possible restrictions this weekend for vsby/cigs with a pattern
shift.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...CP/CSH
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...CP